TPB released its results for 9M 2023 with TOI of VND11.8tn (USD481mn; -1.4% YoY) and NPAT of VND4.0tn (USD162mn; -16.3% YoY), achieving 72.8% and 61.5% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. Q3 2023 NPAT was VND1.3tn (-2.4% QoQ and -26.2% YoY). We see a potential downside risk to our earnings forecast for TPB, pending a more comprehensive review.

- 9M 2023 credit growth was 7.2%, which derived from (1) 11.8% loan growth and (2) a 26.6% decrease in TPB’s corporate bond balance. We note that TPB’s corporate bond balance accounted for 8.1% of its total credit exposure as of Q3 2023 vs 11.8% in Q4 2022.

- 9M 2023 customer deposit balance decreased slightly by 0.6% vs our full-year forecast of +7.0% YoY. In addition, TPB’s CASA ratio improved by 90 bps QoQ to 17.3% which was close to the CASA level in Q3 2022. 

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