TPB released robust 9M 2022 results with TOI of VND12tn (USD487.9mn; +20.7% YoY) and net profit of VND4.7tn (USD195.5mn; +34.9% YoY), achieving 73% and 71% of our FY2022 forecasts, respectively. The increase in NPAT was mainly driven by (1) a 20.6% YoY increase in NII, (2) 78.2% YoY growth in pure NFI, (3) 193% YoY surge in income from FX trading, (4) net other income increasing to VND593bn (USD24.2mn) compared to just VND143bn (USD5.8mn) in 9M 2021 — of which VND503bn (USD20.5) was recovery from bad debt — and (5) a 26.4% YoY decrease in provision expenses. These factors were partly offset by the weak performance in investment securities (-62.5% YoY) while OPEX increased by 35.9% YoY in 9M 2022. 

However, on a QoQ basis, Q3 2022 PPOP was VND2.5tn (-12.2% QoQ) and NPAT was VND1.7tn (-1.3% QoQ). This is because of (1) a 9.7% QoQ decrease in NII, (2) a 33.9% QoQ reduction in trading FX income and (3) only VND7bn (USD0.29mn) income from investment securities compared to VND460bn (USD18.8mn) in Q2 2022. These factors outweigh the 26.3% decline in OPEX and 49.1% cut in provision expenses. We see downside risk to our forecasts, pending a more extensive review.

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