TPB [BUY +30.1%] - Higher credit costs to pressure earnings

We lower our target price (TP) by 27.6% to VND28,100/share but maintain a BUY rating for TPB.
Our lower TP is mainly due to (1) decreasing our projection for aggregate 2022-2026F NPAT by 20.9% and (2) increasing our cost of equity from 13% to 14.6%, the combination of which leads to our lower target P/B multiple for TPB of 1.10x vs 1.55x as previously.
We reduce our 2022F NPAT by 13.8% vs our previous forecast because of (1) a 5.2% decrease in NII following a 19-bp decline in 2022F NIM, (2) a 10.9% decrease in NOII with the main contributors being lower forecasts for trading FX income and trading securities income, and (3) a 2.8% increase in provision expenses.