- 2024-10-17T00:00:00
- Company Research
- TDM released its 9M 2024 results with revenue of VND400bn (+17% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND147bn (-39% YoY). These figures are equivalent to 78% and 74% of our respective full-year forecasts and are consistent with preliminary estimates released by TDM on October 7, 2024. We estimate that 9M 2024 NPAT from water generation was VND130bn (+2% YoY), completing 74% of our full-year forecast and in line with our expectation. As a result, we foresee insignificant changes to our current forecast, pending a fuller review.
- Strong growth in 9M revenue was mainly due to (1) 3.1% YoY growth in sales volume and (2) VND48bn from material trading (vs none in last year’s period). Additionally, the decline in NPAT was due to (1) TDM receiving stock dividends from BWE this year instead of cash dividends in 2023 and (2) a provision for potential losses at subsidiaries Gia Tan Water and Biwase Quang Binh, which outweigh (3) VND18bn of dividend income from Dong Nai Water (DNW).
- For TDM’s Q3 2024 results, revenue was VND106bn (flat YoY), reported NPAT-MI was VND57bn (+1% YoY), and NPAT from water generation was VND40bn (+6% YoY). These results were mainly driven by financial expenses decreasing to VND1bn (-73% YoY), while sales volume was 15.3 million cbm (flat YoY).
- We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for TDM with a target price of VND54,800/share.
TDM’s 9M 2024 results
VND bn (unless stated) | Q3 2023 | Q3 2024 | YoY % | 9M | 9M | YoY % | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Water sales volume (million cbm) | 15.4 | 15.3 | 0% | 49.3 | 50.8 | 3% | 71% |
Revenue | 106.8 | 106.4 | 0% | 340.8 | 399.8 | 17% | 78% |
COGS | -57.5 | -58.9 | 3% | -169.9 | -223.9 | 32% | 81% |
Depreciation expenses | -36.6 | -36.5 | 0% | -109.7 | -109.6 | 0% | 65% |
Gross profit | 49.4 | 47.5 | -4% | 171.0 | 175.9 | 3% | 75% |
SG&A expenses | -2.9 | -3.1 | 7% | -10.1 | -10.1 | 0% | 65% |
Operating profit | 46.5 | 44.3 | -5% | 160.9 | 165.8 | 3% | 76% |
Financial income | 19.4 | 18.4 | -5% | 115.8 | 22.4 | -81% | 64% |
Financial expenses | -4.8 | -1.3 | -73% | -22.2 | -26.9 | 21% | 81% |
Interest expenses | -4.7 | -1.2 | -74% | -14.3 | -7.2 | -50% | 29% |
Net other income/loss | -0.2 | 0.1 | N.M. | 0.0 | 0.2 | N.M. | N.M. |
Profit before tax | 60.9 | 61.5 | 1% | 254.4 | 161.4 | -37% | 74% |
Income tax expenses | -4.3 | -4.5 | 5% | -14.4 | -14.6 | 1% | 74% |
NPAT-MI | 56.6 | 57.0 | 1% | 239.9 | 146.8 | -39% | 74% |
NPAT from water generation | 37.6 | 40.0 | 6% | 127.1 | 129.8 | 2% | 74% |
Source: TDM, Vietcap
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