TDM – Q1 2024 NPAT from water generation grows 11% YoY, broadly in line with expectation – Earnings Flash
  • 2024-04-15T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • TDM announced its Q1 2024 results with revenue of VND106bn (+5.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND38bn (-70.2% YoY). These results complete 21%/19% of our respective full-year forecasts. Water sales volume within the period increased to 14.6 million cubic meters, which is equivalent to 4.3% YoY growth and completed 21% of our full year projection.  We note that first quarters are usually the low season as water demand lags because of factory closures and residents returning home for the Tet holiday.
  • We estimate NPAT from water generation to be VND38bn (+11.2% YoY) in Q1 2024, which completes 21.3% our full-year forecast. We see insignificant to our forecast, pending a fuller review. We attribute the increase in NPAT to 1) 4.3% YoY sales volume growth and 2) a 12.3% YoY lower financial expense following an exclusion of guarantee fees for its loans, vs that of VND2.1bn in Q1 2023. 
  • Financial income tumbled 98% YoY (from VND94bn to only VND2bn) due to TDM not receiving a cash dividend from BWE this year, vs VND94bn in Q1 2023. According to BWE’s 2024 AGM resolution earlier last month, BWE will pay a stock dividend instead of a cash dividend for 2023 (see our BWE's 2024 AGM Notes), which results in a significant financial income plunge for TDM in 2024. Consequently, TDM’s Q1 2024 NPAT-MI decreased 70% YoY. 
  • Binh Duong provincial authorities set a 2024 GRDP target of 8%-8.5%, and in Q1 2024, it has reached a growth of 5.27% vs that of 1.15% in Q1 last year. This proves that industrial activities are recovering and this will drive up water demand in 2024. As a result, we expect TDM to benefit from this and reach our full-year sales volume and NPAT-MI forecasts towards the end of the year.
  • TDM’s rights issue at VND30,000/share has been successfully subscribed and starting from April 11, 2024, the total of outstanding shares was raised to 110 million shares. The VND300bn proceeds are mainly for M&A transactions and loans payback. We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for TDM with a target price of VND42,100/share.

TDM’s Q1 2024 results

VND bn

(unless stated)

Q1 2023

Q1 2024

YoY

% of Vietcap’s 2024F

Water sales volume

(million cbm)

14.6

15.3

4.3%

21.3%

Revenue

101

106

5.1%

20.8%

COGS

-54

-57

6.4%

20.9%

Depreciation expenses

-37

-37

-0.2%

21.9%

Gross profit

47

49

3.6%

20.8%

SG&A expenses

-4

-4

8.3%

28.9%

Operating profit

43

45

3.2%

20.2%

Financial income

94

2

-97.9%

7.3%

Financial expenses

-6

-5

-12.3%

15.3%

Interest expenses

-3

-4

16.4%

16.9%

Net other income/loss

0

1

N.M

N.M.

Profit before tax

132

42

-67.8%

19.6%

Income tax expenses

-4

-4

11.8%

21.9%

NPAT-MI

128

38

-70.2%

19.4%

NPAT from water generation

34

38

11.2%

21.3%

Source: TDM, Vietcap

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