- We increase our target price (TP) for TDM by 6% to VND54,800/share and upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM. Our higher TP is due to (1) a 7% increase in our stand-alone valuation for TDM following a 3.8% increase in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (respective increases of +0%/+1%/+2.4%/+4.6%/+6.9% in 2024/25/26/27/28F) and (2) a 9% increase in our valuation for BWE.

- Our higher aggregate NPAT-MI forecast is driven by our increased water tariff hike assumption from 3% to 5% p.a. starting July 1, 2025, coupled with lower forecast COGS growth.

- We forecast NPAT from water generation to grow 6.2% YoY in 2024, driven by sales volume growth of 5% YoY. Meanwhile, we expect 2024F reported NPAT to decrease 29.5% YoY due to TDM not receiving a cash dividend from BWE (receiving a 14% stock dividend instead).

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