- We cut our target price for TCB by 8.2% to VND64,100/share but maintain our BUY rating.

- Our lower TP is mainly driven by a lower valuation produced by both the residual income and target P/B approaches that is derived from (1) a 2.7% aggregate decrease in our projection for 2022-2026F NPAT-MI and (2) an increase in our in-house cost of equity from 12.5% to 13.0%.

- We decrease our 2022F NPAT-MI by 2.6% to VND21.7tn (USD944mn; +20.3% YoY) vs our previous forecast as a result of (1) a 2.8% decrease in NII following a 7-bp cut in NIM and a downward revision in our credit growth assumption from 22.8% to 17.7% — with the main cut focused on the corporate bond balance — and (2) a 2.9% decrease in pure NFI due to cuts in fees from the underwriting business and securities brokerage, which are partly offset by a 23.9% decrease in provision expenses.

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