- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price (TP) at VND26,000/share for TCB as we trim our aggregate 2024-2028F earnings forecast by only 0.9% (respectively changes of +5.4%/+0.7%/-1.5%/-2.4%/-3.4% for 2024/25/26/27/28F).

- The slightly decrease in our 2024-2028F earnings forecast is mainly due to (1) a 1.2% increase in aggregate NOII mostly due to a 9.1% increase in our 2024F forecast, that is offset by (2) a 6.2% increase in aggregate 2024-2028F provision expenses following (i) deterioration in asset quality in Q2 2024 and (ii) slow recovery of real estate developer clients in HCMC. 

- Q2 2024 restructured loans under Circular 02 were flat QoQ at 1.3% of the total gross loans and are fully provisioned.

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