- We raise our target price (TP) for TCB by 16.9% to VND52,000/share but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating as the share price has increased 24% in the last three months.

- Our higher TP is driven by (i) a 12% increase in our projection for aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (with respective changes of 5.5%/8.9%/8.8%/13.4%/18.6% in 2024/25/26/27/28F), (ii) an increase in our target P/B multiple from 1.1x to 1.2x, and (iii) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid–2025. 

- The increase in our 2024-2028F aggregate earnings forecast is mainly due to (1) a 4.9% aggregate increase in NII following an upward revision in our average assumption for NIM from 4.16% to 4.35% (vs average NIM of 4.85% in 2019-2023) due to our expectation for stronger credit demand resulting from significant recovery in the economy and the real estate market over this forecast period, and (2) a 26% decrease in aggregate provision expenses as we are less conservative on the outlook for the bank following Q1 2024 performance. 

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