• We attended TCB’s AGM on April 20. The meeting’s main agenda was to propose 2024 guidance and seek shareholder approval for dividend plans. The Q&A section focused on TCB’s customer acquisition, risk appetite, and FOL.
• 2024 guidance includes credit growth of 16.2% YoY (final growth subject to the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) decision), the NPL ratio to be kept below 1.5%, and profit before tax (PBT) of VND27.1tn (~USD 1.1 bn; 18.4% YoY) vs our forecast of VND25.9tn (USD 1.0 bn; 13% YoY). Additionally, the CIR is targeted to be controlled at 2023’s level (~ 33%). 
• 2024 TCB’s main focus areas are (i) growing its CASA; (ii) diversifying its loan book, and (iii) increasing the portion of NFI in TOI.  
• TCBS has 8% of brokerage market share on the Ho Chi Minh stock exchange. No specific timeline was provided for the IPO. 2025’s market cap target for TCBS is about USD5bn vs TCB’s 2025 target of USD20bn. 
• TCB is continuing to explore opportunities with foreign strategic shareholders, aiming for ~ 10% stake post deal. 
• Shareholders approved (1) a cash dividend of 1,500 VND/share and (2) a stock dividend, with a ratio of 1:1. 
• We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for TCB with a target price of VND44,500/share. 

The bank has consistently invested significantly in digital and data technologies since 2020, with an annual expenditure of around VND 2 trillion. The CEO has noted that in terms of digitalization, TCB is more advanced than its peers by about two or three years. Currently, 33% of the PBT is generated from the digital platform. TCB estimates that the CIR could be reduced by 17-19 ppts when operations are conducted digitally compared to a physical branch.

TCB acquired a high number of new customers in 2023. The banks share that strong growth in digital and data capabilities plays a key role in accelerating customer acquisition. In 2023, TCB acquired 2.6 million new customers through digital platforms and the Winlife ecosystems, bringing the total customer base to 13 million. The CEO noted that TCB's focus on affluent and mass affluent customers may lead to a different rate of new customer acquisition compared to other banks that target mass customers. In addition, the CEO also shared that the income per customer could be considered a factor when evaluating banks in this aspect.  

Earnings guidance was set with a conservative view given short-term uncertainty. However, with their overall expectation of economic recovery, including a 2024 GDP of 6%, TCB is confident in achieving its guidance. In a positive development, the Chairman revealed that the earnings for the first quarter are on track to complete their AGM guidance.

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