- We attended TCB’s AGM in Hanoi on April 22. The meeting’s main agenda was to (1) review 2022 results, (2) approve 2023 targets, (3) approve a plan to join Techcom Securities’ (TCBS) private placement, and (4) approve an ESOP issuance.
- The Q&A session focused on (1) TCBS’s private placement plan, (2) the dividend policy, (3) the state of corporate bonds and the real estate market, and (4) earnings guidance.
- 2023 guidance includes (1) credit growth of 15.0% YoY or higher (depending on the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) decision regarding its credit growth quota) vs our full-year forecast of ~14% YoY, (2) funding growth to be managed in accordance with credit growth, (3) the NPL ratio of the parent bank to be kept below 1.5% vs our full-year forecast of 1.4% and (4) profit before tax (PBT) of VND22tn (-14% YoY) vs our forecast of VND25.5tn (-0.2% YoY). Our data shows that TCB surpassed its earnings guidance in 2018-2021 by an average of ~14%. Meanwhile, TCB trailed its earnings guidance by 5.3% in 2022 partly due to the uncertainties in corporate bonds and the real estate market.