- 2024-01-22T00:00:00
- Company Research
TCB released its 2023 results with TOI of VND40.1tn (USD1.7bn; -2.1% YoY) and bottom-line net profit of VND18.0tn (USD744mn; -10.7% YoY), fulfilling 100% and 98% of our respective FY2023 forecasts. The decline in NPAT-MI growth was mainly due to pressure from lower NIM and higher credit costs. TCB’s Q4 2023 NPAT was VND4.4tn (-3.8% QoQ; +25.2% YoY). Overall, TCB’s results were broadly in line with our expectations. We see no material changes to our earnings forecasts for TCB, pending a more extensive review.
- 2023 credit growth was 21.6% (vs our full-year forecast of ~14%), with gross loans increasing by 23.3% and the corporate bond book increasing by 3.6%. Q4 2023 credit growth was 7.1% QoQ mainly due to high loan growth while the corporate bond balance dropped 12.0% QoQ.
- High 2023 loan growth was mainly due to the corporate segment (+53.4% YoY) with RECOM (real estate, construction, and materials) (+56.1% YoY), manufacturing & processing (+50.2% YoY), wholesale and retail trade (+31.4% YoY), and the transportation & warehousing sectors (+5x YoY from a low base), contributing as the key growth drivers. Meanwhile, loans to individuals decreased 5.8% YoY, which we attribute mainly to muted mortgages.
- 2023 customer deposits grew 26.9% YoY with Q4 2023 deposit growth of 11.2% QoQ.
- In Q4 2023, TCB’s CASA ratio increased to 39.9% (+ 6.3 ppts QoQ; +2.9 ppts YoY), which beat our expectation of 36.0% for YE2023. We attribute the higher-than-expected CASA ratio to currently low term deposit rates after a series of cuts by banks and/or the resumed activity in several investment channels (e.g. corporate bonds).
- 2023 NIM dropped 127 bps YoY to 4.02% vs our full-year forecast of 4.16%, which we mainly attribute to the decrease in the retail lending portion and the impact of TCB’s flexible pricing policy. For Q4 2023 NIM alone, it dropped 13 bps QoQ despite a significant improvement in the CASA ratio, which could have been due to credit being disbursed later in the quarter and/or the continued implementation of the flexible pricing policy.
- 2023 NOII was VND12.4tn (+16.6% YoY), completing 101% of our full-year forecast.
- 2023 CIR increased 0.3 ppts YoY to 33.1% vs our full-year forecast of 33.0% due to a 2.1% YoY decrease in TOI that outweighed a 1.1% YoY decrease in OPEX.
- Asset quality remained intact QoQ with the NPL ratio decreasing by 21 bps to 1.19% in Q4 2023 (vs our full-year forecast of 1.40%) with a high write-off rate in the quarter of 0.30% (vs our full-year forecast of 0.50%). The Q4 2023 Group 2 loan ratio dropped by 41 bps QoQ to 0.88%.
- 2023 credit cost was 0.76% (vs 0.46% in 2022). In addition, TCB’s LLR was 102% in Q4 2023 (+9 ppts QoQ; -55 ppts YoY).
- In the earnings press release, the CEO shared that the bank will propose an annual cash dividend plan to shareholders with a payout ratio of at least 20% at the upcoming AGM but will ensure to maintain the Core Equity Tier 1 ratio at ~14-15%.
TCB’s consolidated 2023 results
VND bn | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY |
NII | 30,290 | 27,691 | -8.6% | 6,819 | 7,597 | 11.4% |
Non-interest income | 10,612 | 12,370 | 16.6% | 2,608 | 3,420 | 31.1% |
OPEX | (13,398) | (13,252) | -1.1% | (3,990) | (3,610) | -9.5% |
PPOP | 27,504 | 26,809 | -2.5% | 5,437 | 7,407 | 36.2% |
Provision expenses | (1,936) | (3,921) | 102.5% | (691) | (1,634) | 136.4% |
NPAT-MI | 20,150 | 18,004 | -10.7% | 3,544 | 4,439 | 25.2% |
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Loan growth** | 21.1% | 23.3% | 2.2 ppts | 2.4% | 9.0% | 6.6 ppts |
Deposit growth** | 13.9% | 26.9% | 13.0 ppts | 12.4% | 11.2% | -1.2 ppts |
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NIM | 5.29% | 4.02% | -127 bps | 4.50% | 4.17% | -33 bps |
Interest-earning asset yield | 7.82% | 8.22% | 40 bps | 8.09% | 7.92% | -17 bps |
Cost of funds | 2.83% | 4.63% | 180 bps | 3.95% | 4.14% | 19 bps |
CASA ratio* | 37.0% | 39.9% | 2.9 ppts | 37.0% | 39.9% | 2.9 ppts |
CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX | 38.0% | 40.8% | 2.8 ppts | 38.0% | 40.8% | 2.8 ppts |
CIR | 32.8% | 33.1% | 0.3 ppts | 42.3% | 32.8% | -9.5 ppts |
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NPLs / Gross loans*** | 0.74% | 1.19% | 45 bps | 0.74% | 1.19% | 45 bps |
Group 2 loans / Gross loans*** | 2.12% | 0.88% | -124 bps | 2.12% | 0.88% | -124 bps |
Accrued interest / IEAs | 1.30% | 1.27% | -3 bps | 1.30% | 1.27% | -3 bps |
Source: TCB, Vietcap — *CASA volume included demand deposits and margin deposits; ** Q4 2022 and Q4 2023 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth; 2022 and 2023 loan and deposit growth is YoY growth; *** We note that TCB changed the way its financial statements break down loan group classifications starting in Q4 2022 — margin loans were presented separately in a note on the loan portfolio by quality, and TCB did not provide loan group classifications for these margin loans.
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