TCB released consolidated results for 2022 with PPOP and NPAT-MI of VND27.5tn (USD1.2bn; +6.2% YoY) and VND20.2tn (USD854mn; +11.6% YoY), which achieved 93.3% and 93.4% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. The increase in the bottom line was driven by (1) 13.5% YoY and 33.6% YoY increases in NII and pure NFI, respectively, as well as (2) a 27.3% YoY decrease in provision expenses. These factors were partly offset by (1) a VND275bn loss from FX trading vs a VND231bn gain in 2021 and (2) a VND184bn gain from trading and investment securities vs a VND2.0tn gain in 2021. Q4 2022 NPAT-MI decreased 33.1% QoQ and 23.1% YoY to VND3.5tn mainly due to NIM contracting. We see potential downside risk to our earnings forecast for TCB, pending a fuller review.

Strong Q4 2022 deposit growth — in line with the trend that we have seen for most of the banks that have thus far reported Q4 2022 results. TCB’s Q4 2022 deposit growth was strong at 12.4% QoQ, but its Q4 2022 credit growth was slow at 1.6% QoQ with gross loans increasing 2.4% QoQ while the corporate bond book decreased 5.7% QoQ. 2022 deposit growth was 13.9% YoY vs credit growth of 12.5% YoY.