• We cut our target price for TCB by 30.6% to VND44,500/share but maintain our BUY rating.
• Our lower TP is mainly driven by (1) a 10.9% aggregate decrease in our projection for 2022-2026F NPAT-MI, (2) an increase in our assumption for TCB’s cost of equity from 13.0% to 15.3% and (3) a decrease in our target P/B multiple from 1.84x to 1.20x, which are partly offset by the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2023.
• We decrease our 2022F NPAT-MI by 0.6% to VND21.6tn (USD870mn; +19.6% YoY) due to (1) a 0.6% decrease in NII following a 5-bp cut in NIM that results from an upward revision in COF amid higher-than-expected rate hikes and a lower-than-expected Q3 2022 CASA ratio and (2) a 20.1% increase in provision expenses.

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