- We maintain our target price (TP) for TCB at VND42,200/share, as well as our BUY rating.

- The positive impact on our valuation from rolling TP horizon forward to end-2024 is offset by (1) a 4.1% aggregate decrease in our projection for 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (with respective changes of -0.7%/-1.8%/-10.8%/-5.3%/-1.0% in 2023/24/25/26/27F) and (2) a decrease in our assumption for TCB’s target P/B from 1.2x to 1.1x based on the Gordon Growth Model (GGM). 

- The decrease in our 2023-2027F earnings is mainly due to (1) a 4.5% aggregate decrease in NII due to a cut in our average NIM assumption from 4.78% to 4.51%, (2) a 1.3% aggregate decrease in pure NFI driven by cuts in bancassurance fees, and (3) a 3.7% aggregate increase in provision expenses. Our average assumption for 2023-2027F credit costs is 0.98%.

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