- We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for SZC and increase our target price by 7% to VND42,400/share. Our higher target price is mainly due to applying a DCF valuation for the Chau Duc UA project and rolling forward our target price horizon to end-2024 from mid-2024. These positive changes are partially offset by slower projected IP land sales in 2023-2025F.

- We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI growth of 9% YoY to VND215bn (USD8.8mn; -5% vs our prior forecast) as we expect scheduled handovers at the Chau Duc IP and Huu Phuoc UA in Q4 2023F. We lower our forecast due to weaker-than-expected GPM in 9M 2023. 

- We lower our 2024F and 2025F NPAT-MI forecasts by 16% and 2% to VND275bn (USD11mn; +28% YoY) and VND404bn (USD17mn; +47% YoY), respectively, as we lower our average 2023-2025 IP land sales assumption by 13% to 35 ha annually.  We lower our IP land sales projections as we have observed slower sales to related parties of SZC (only a 6.5 ha contract to D2D announced in December 2023 vs a 21.6 ha contract to SNZ announced in December 2022). 

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