- We increase our target price for SZC by 22% to VND42,000/share but maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating as share price has increased 16% YTD. Our higher target price is primarily a result of (1) higher valuation for the Chau Duc IP due to an increase in expected 2024-26F IP land sales compared to our previous projection, given higher-than-expected 2023 IP land sales, and (2) removal of a 10% discount from our estimated RNAV for SZC.

- We forecast 2024/25F NPAT-MI at VND304bn (USD13mn; +39% YoY) and VND419bn (USD17mn; +38% YoY), respectively, mainly driven by our anticipation for (1) higher profit in the IP segment due to price appreciation and increased IP land handovers, and (2) stronger growth in UA land handovers at the Huu Phuoc UA vs in 2023. 

- We revise up our respective 2024/25F NPAT-MI forecasts by 11%/4% as we expect higher IP land handovers in both years given that IP land sales (under signed contracts and/or MOUs) in 2023 of 66.6 ha exceeded our previous forecast of 30 ha.

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