STB released consolidated results for Q1 2023 with TOI of VND6.8tn (USD288mn; +32.7% YoY) and bottom-line net profit of VND1.9tn (USD81mn; +49.1% YoY), achieving 21.7% and 18.7% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. Excluding our assumption for the recognition of the final tranche of the upfront banca fee in 2023, Q1 2023 NPAT completed 21.5% of our full-year forecast. The increase in NPAT was mainly driven by a 113.1% YoY increase in NII, which was partly offset by a 59.6% YoY decrease in NOII and a 42.2% YoY increase in provision expenses. We see slight downside risk to our earnings forecast for STB in 2023 and slight upside to our earnings forecasts for STB post-2023, pending a fuller review.

Q1 2023 credit growth was relatively in line with system-wide growth. STB reported Q1 2023 credit growth of 2.2% QoQ vs system-wide credit growth of 2.1% QoQ. Note that STB was not exposed to corporate bond as of Q1 2023. In addition, STB’s deposit growth was strong at 5.3% QoQ.

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