- We maintain our target price (TP) for STB at VND38,100/share but upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY as the stock’s price has decreased by ~16% in the past three months. 

- The negative impact on our valuation from a 13.2% aggregate decrease in our 2023-2027F NPAT-MI projections (respective changes of -4.9%/-20.2%/-25.6%/-18.8%/5.5% in 2023/24/25/26/27F) is offset by the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2024. We maintain our target P/B for STB at 1.1x.

- Our lower 2023-2027F NPAT-MI forecast is mainly due to (1) a 6.3% aggregate decrease in NII that is derived from our cut in average NIM from 4.23% to 4.08%, (2) a 2.9% aggregate decrease in pure NFI and (3) a 5.4% aggregate increase in provision expenses.

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