- We maintain our BUY rating and target price (TP) for STB at VND38,100/share. Our TP is unchanged due to the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2025F, offsetting (1) a 5.1% decrease in our aggregate 2024-2028F projected NPAT (-2.2%/-15.6%/-2.2%/0.4%/-6.3% in 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively) and (2) lowering our target P/B to 1.0x from 1.1x.

- We decrease our aggregate 2024-2028F net income mainly due to (1) a 13.1% decrease in aggregate pure NFI as we believe bancassurance fees will be weaker in 2024-2025 after the recent changes in regulations and (2) a 1.2% decrease in aggregate NII due to our lower expectation for average NIM at 4.12% vs 4.16% in our previous update. 

- We decrease our one-year target P/B for STB to 1.0x due to (1) our cautious outlook on the ability to sell the 32.5% stake pledged as collateral at VAMC in the short term and (2) lowering the forecasted sustainable ROE from 19.4% to 18.9% following our lower forecast for aggregate 2024-2028F earrings.

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