- We maintain our target price (TP) for SSI at VND33,300/share but downgrade our rating from BUY to MARKET PERFORM as the share price has increased 27% in the last two months.

- We attribute SSI’s strong share price performance recently in part to investors’ belief in (1) the positive impact of the KRX system once it goes live in 2024F and/or (2) proactive approaches from the authorities as well as securities companies to remove pre-funding requirements for foreign investors, paving the way for the Vietnamese stock market to be upgraded from frontier to emerging status by 2025, and/or (3) potential future growth after the right issuance plan received approval by shareholders in late December 2023.

- Meanwhile, we maintain our view and our earnings projections for SSI as stated in our Update Report SSI [BUY +33.2%] – Higher 2024F ADTV to support earnings growth. We expect SSI to deliver a 19.3% YoY growth in 2024F NPAT-MI to VND2.8tn thanks to (1) a 22.2% YoY increase in brokerage revenue following our expectation that SSI could maintain its trading market share on three venues combined at ~ 10% on a 23% YoY increase in 2024F ADTV, (2) a 27.3% YoY increase in margin lending revenue that results from our higher YoY assumption for the margin loan book, which is partly offset by our lower YoY assumption for the effective margin lending rate, and (3) a 14.9% YoY increase in gains from HTM. 

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