SSI [BUY +23.9%] - Lower forecast for 2023, but long-term outlook remains

- We keep our target price (TP) for SSI at VND23,600/share and maintain a BUY rating.

- While SSI could face short-term headwinds amid the current uncertainties in both the domestic and global market, we maintain our view for the medium-to-long-term growth of the securities sector in Vietnam. As a result, SSI — one of the largest securities companies in Vietnam — should be a beneficiary.

- We cut our projection for 2023F NPAT-MI by 9.5% to VND1.6tn (USD69mn; -4.5% YoY) mainly due to (1) an 11.1% decrease in brokerage revenue following a downward revision in our assumptions for 2023F average daily trading value (ADTV) and SSI’s market share on Vietnam’s three trading venues, (2) a 10.3% decrease in margin lending revenue as we revise down our assumption for SSI’s margin loan book, and (3) 5.2% increase in borrowing costs.