SSI [BUY +23.1%] - Cutting 2022F ADTV but positive on year-end recovery

- We cut our target price (TP) for SSI by 3.3% to VND29,400/share but maintain a BUY rating.

- Our lower TP is derived from (1) a 1.1% aggregate decrease in our forecast for 2022-2026F NPAT-MI and (2) an increase in our house cost of equity from 12.5% to 13.0%. We decrease our target P/B for SSI from 2.3x to 2.25x.

- We cut our 2022F net income by 4.8% to VND2.2tn (USD94mn; -19.8% YoY) as a result of (1) a 20.8% decrease in brokerage revenue following a downward revision in our assumption for 2022F average daily trading value (ADTV) as well as SSI’s market share on Vietnam’s three trading venues, (2) an 8.2% decrease in margin lending revenue on a lower assumption for the margin loan book, and (3) a 15.5% decrease in gains from HTM, which are partly offset by (1) a 15.0% decrease in loss from FVTPL and (2) 28.6% decrease in borrowing costs.