- We maintain our target price (TP) for SSI at VND38,700/share but upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY as the share price has dropped 8% over the past three months. We maintain our forecast for aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT almost unchanged (-2.1%/0%/+1.1%/+1.2%/ +1.1% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively). 

- Our relatively unchanged aggregate earnings forecast is driven by: (1) a 1.3% decrease in aggregate margin lending revenue and (2) a 1.1% decrease in aggregate brokerage revenue due to a lower forecast for 2024F ADTV, offset by (3) a 1.5% increase in aggregate gains from FVTPL, primarily from higher interest income on certificates of deposit due to expected deposit rate increases in the coming quarters, and (4) a 3.2% decrease in aggregate operating expenses.

- We lower our 2024F NPAT-MI by 2.1% to VND2.9tn (USD118mn; +26.1% YoY) mainly due to (1) a 3.0% reduction in our forecast for 2024F brokerage revenue and (2) a 3.9% reduction in our forecast for 2024F margin lending revenue. This decline is a result of (1) lowering our forecast for SSI's brokerage market share by 10 basis points to 9.4% and (2) the ADTV of Vietnam’s three stock exchanges in July 2024 was lower than our expectations.

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