- We cut our target price (TP) for SSI by 19.7% to VND23,600/share but maintain a BUY rating.

- Our lower TP is derived from (1) a 27.9% decrease in our forecast for aggregate 2022-2026F NPAT-MI and (2) an increase in our assumption for SSI’s cost of equity from 13.0% to 16.7%, which are partly offset by the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2023. We decrease our target P/B multiple for SSI from 2.25x to 2.15x.

- We cut our 2022F NPAT-MI by 18.0% to VND1.7tn (USD71mn; -34.3% YoY) as a result of (1) a 15.9% decrease in brokerage revenue following a downward revision in our assumptions for 2022F average daily trading value (ADTV) and SSI’s market share on Vietnam’s three trading venues, (2) a 46.7% decrease in gains from HTM and (3) a 5.6% decrease in gains from FVTPL, which are partly offset by a 17.6% decrease in loss from FVTPL and 8.6% decrease in borrowing costs.

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