- 2024-10-18T00:00:00
- Company Research
SCS announced its 9M 2024 results with net revenue of VND743bn (USD29.7mn; +47% YoY; 77% of our 2024F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND523bn (USD20.9mn; +41% YoY; 80% of our 2024F forecast). In Q3, net revenue was VND266bn (USD10.6mn; +55% YoY, +1% QoQ) and NPAT-MI was VND186bn (USD7.4mn; +46% YoY, -2% QoQ).
Volume recovery continued but slightly missed expectations: SCS posted solid 9M 2024 total cargo volume of 194,300 tonnes (+42% YoY; 71% of our 2024F forecast), with international cargo at 147,500 tonnes (+51% YoY; 72% of our 2024F forecast) and domestic cargo at 46,800 tonnes (+22% YoY; 68% of our 2024F forecast). This was driven by a rebound in trading, higher sea freight rates boosting air cargo appeal in H1 2024, and new contributions from Qatar Airways. However, 9M 2024 results slightly trail our projections as Q3 volume dropped 7% QoQ – vs our expectation for stronger H2 results vs H1.
9M 2024 ASP recovered 4% YoY, ahead of our forecast: 9M 2024 ASP grew 4% YoY due to respective increases in ASP of 3% and 11% YoY in Q2 and Q3 2024, vs -2% YoY in Q1 2024, leading 9M 2024 GPM to expand to 80% from 77.3% in 9M 2023. This led to 9M 2024 GPM expanding to 80% from 77.3% in 9M 2023, ahead of our forecast for a 3% YoY full-year ASP decline and 76.3% GPM in 2024F. Consequently, 9M 2024 NPAT-MI tracked slightly ahead of our expectation, fulfilling 80% of the 2024F forecast.
Overall, we see slight upside potential to our forecasts, driven by upside potential for our ASP and GPM projections that outweigh downside risk for cargo volume forecasts.
SCS’s 9M 2024 results
Q3 2023 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | QoQ | YoY | 9M 2023 | 9M 2024 | YoY | 2024F | 9M vs 2024F | ||
Cargo volume (tonnes) | 46,145 | 70,298 | 65,568 | -7% | 42% | 136,415 | 194,298 | 42% | 274,200 | 71% | |
International | 34,379 | 53,005 | 51,871 | -2% | 51% | 97,937 | 147,508 | 51% | 205,665 | 72% | |
Domestic | 11,766 | 17,293 | 13,697 | -21% | 16% | 38,478 | 46,790 | 22% | 68,535 | 68% | |
ASP (VND/Kg) | 3,417 | 3,515 | 3,800 | 8% | 11% | 3,414 | 3,567 | 4% | 3,298 | 108% | |
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Net revenue | 172 | 264 | 266 | 1% | 55% | 506 | 743 | 47% | 969 | 77% | |
Air cargo terminal | 158 | 247 | 249 | 1% | 58% | 466 | 693 | 49% | 904 | 77% | |
Others | 14 | 17 | 17 | -2% | 21% | 40 | 50 | 24% | 64 | 78% | |
Gross Profit | 134 | 213 | 213 | 0% | 59% | 391 | 594 | 52% | 739 | 80% | |
SG&A | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14% | 27% | 36 | 43 | 19% | 69 | 61% | |
Operating Profit | 122 | 199 | 198 | -1% | 62% | 355 | 551 | 55% | 670 | 82% | |
Financial income | 24 | 14 | 12 | -16% | -51% | 68 | 40 | -42% | 61 | 65% | |
PBT | 146 | 213 | 209 | -2% | 44% | 423 | 591 | 40% | 731 | 81% | |
CIT | 18 | 24 | 23 | -2% | 29% | 53 | 68 | 28% | 77 | 89% | |
NPAT-MI | 128 | 190 | 186 | -2% | 46% | 370 | 523 | 41% | 654 | 80% | |
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GPM | 78.0% | 80.6% | 80.0% |
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| 77.3% | 80.0% |
| 76.3% |
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SG&A | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% |
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| 7.1% | 5.7% |
| 7.2% |
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OPM | 71.0% | 75.5% | 74.3% |
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| 70.2% | 74.2% |
| 69.2% |
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NPM | 74.4% | 71.8% | 69.9% |
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| 73.1% | 70.4% |
| 67.6% |
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Source: SCS, Vietcap
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