SCS - Strong ASP drives positive Q3 results despite weaker-than-expected cargo volume - Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-18T00:00:00
  • Company Research

SCS announced its 9M 2024 results with net revenue of VND743bn (USD29.7mn; +47% YoY; 77% of our 2024F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND523bn (USD20.9mn; +41% YoY; 80% of our 2024F forecast). In Q3, net revenue was VND266bn (USD10.6mn; +55% YoY, +1% QoQ) and NPAT-MI was VND186bn (USD7.4mn; +46% YoY, -2% QoQ).

Volume recovery continued but slightly missed expectations: SCS posted solid 9M 2024 total cargo volume of 194,300 tonnes (+42% YoY; 71% of our 2024F forecast), with international cargo at 147,500 tonnes (+51% YoY; 72% of our 2024F forecast) and domestic cargo at 46,800 tonnes (+22% YoY; 68% of our 2024F forecast). This was driven by a rebound in trading, higher sea freight rates boosting air cargo appeal in H1 2024, and new contributions from Qatar Airways. However, 9M 2024 results slightly trail our projections as Q3 volume dropped 7% QoQ – vs our expectation for stronger H2 results vs H1.

9M 2024 ASP recovered 4% YoY, ahead of our forecast: 9M 2024 ASP grew 4% YoY due to respective increases in ASP of 3% and 11% YoY in Q2 and Q3 2024, vs -2% YoY in Q1 2024, leading 9M 2024 GPM to expand to 80% from 77.3% in 9M 2023. This led to 9M 2024 GPM expanding to 80% from 77.3% in 9M 2023, ahead of our forecast for a 3% YoY full-year ASP decline and 76.3% GPM in 2024F. Consequently, 9M 2024 NPAT-MI tracked slightly ahead of our expectation, fulfilling 80% of the 2024F forecast.

Overall, we see slight upside potential to our forecasts, driven by upside potential for our ASP and GPM projections that outweigh downside risk for cargo volume forecasts.

SCS’s 9M 2024 results


Q3 

2023

Q2 

2024

 Q3 

2024 

 QoQ 

 YoY 

9M 

2023

9M 

2024

YoY

2024F

9M vs 2024F

Cargo volume (tonnes)

46,145

70,298

65,568

-7%

42%

136,415

194,298

42%

274,200

71%

    International

34,379

53,005

51,871

-2%

51%

97,937

147,508

51%

205,665

72%

    Domestic

11,766

17,293

13,697

-21%

16%

38,478

46,790

22%

68,535

68%

ASP (VND/Kg)

3,417

3,515

3,800

8%

11%

3,414

3,567

4%

3,298

108%


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net revenue

172

264

266

1%

55%

506

743

47%

969

77%

    Air cargo terminal

158

247

249

1%

58%

466

693

49%

904

77%

    Others

14

17

17

-2%

21%

40

50

24%

64

78%

Gross Profit

134

213

213

0%

59%

391

594

52%

739

80%

SG&A

12

13

15

14%

27%

36

43

19%

69

61%

Operating Profit

122

199

198

-1%

62%

355

551

55%

670

82%

Financial income

24

14

12

-16%

-51%

68

40

-42%

61

65%

PBT

146

213

209

-2%

44%

423

591

40%

731

81%

CIT

18

24

23

-2%

29%

53

68

28%

77

89%

NPAT-MI

128

190

186

-2%

46%

370

523

41%

654

80%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPM

78.0%

80.6%

80.0%

 

 

77.3%

80.0%

 

76.3%

 

SG&A

7.0%

5.1%

5.7%

 

 

7.1%

5.7%

 

7.2%

 

OPM

71.0%

75.5%

74.3%

 

 

70.2%

74.2%

 

69.2%

 

NPM

74.4%

71.8%

69.9%

 

 

73.1%

70.4%

 

67.6%

 













Source: SCS, Vietcap

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