- We downgrade our rating for SCS from BUY to OUTPERFORM despite keep our target price nearly unchanged as the share price has increased by 9% during the last eight months. 

- We increase our 2024F and 2025F NPAT-MI forecasts by 10% and 2%, respectively, as (1) SCS began working with Qatar Airways from February 2024, earlier than we expected, and (2) higher sea shipping costs due to the Red Sea Crisis helping air cargo gain competitiveness. 

- However, we cut our 2027F-2028F NPAT by 6% and 5%, respectively, as SCS expects to own only a minority stake in Long Thanh International Airport’s (LTA) cargo terminal No.1.

- We forecast international volume to increase 41%/18%/6% in 2024F/2025F/2026F before slumping 30% in 2027F when LTA comes online. 

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