- 2024-01-19T00:00:00
- Company Research
- SCS released its Q4 2023 results, which improved decently QoQ. SCS’s 2023 revenue and NPAT dropped 14% and 21% YoY, achieving 93% and 102% of our respective full-year forecasts.
- Demand from trade activities trailed our expectations. However, financial income beat our expectation. We see slight potential downside risks to our forecasts, pending a fuller review.
- Nevertheless, we expect SCS’s total air cargo throughput to recover at a mid-teen rate YoY in 2024 as trade recovers, led by restocking.
- Q4 2023 international cargo volume increased 15% QoQ and 6% YoY, marking the beginning of an expected recovery trend.
- However, EBIT margin compressed sharply to 64.6% in Q4 2023 amid the Ministry of Transport’s new concession scheme. In this new scheme, SCS will have to pay another 1.5%-4.5% of its air cargo revenue in concession to the State.
- The new Long Thanh International Airport will have two cargo terminals. Hence, business can potentially be divided cleanly between two existing groups of operators in Vietnam’s airports.
- SCS plans to become a shareholder and the only operator of cargo terminal No. 1 in Long Thanh Airport. This terminal will have a capacity of 550,000 tonnes/year and cost USD43mn in capex.
SCS’s Q4 2023 results
VND bn | Q3 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | 2023/ 2023F | 2023 |
Int’l cargo volume | 34,379 | 36,914 | 39,173 | 6% | 176,540 | 137,110 | -22% | 97% | 141,232 |
Domestic cargo volume | 11,766 | 11,177 | 14,241 | 27% | 44,426 | 52,719 | 19% | 101% | 52,423 |
Total cargo volume | 46,145 | 48,091 | 53,414 | 11% | 220,966 | 189,829 | -14% | 98% | 193,655 |
Average service price (VND/kg) | 3,417 | 3,784 | 3,380 | -11% | 3,463 | 3,404 | -2% | 94% | 3,615 |
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Revenue | 172 | 196 | 199 | 1% | 818 | 705 | -14% | 93% | 758 |
Air cargo terminal | 158 | 182 | 181 | -1% | 765 | 646 | -16% | 92% | 700 |
Others | 13 | 14 | 13 | -4% | 52 | 53 | 2% | 92% | 58 |
Gross Profit | 134 | 165 | 144 | -13% | 656 | 535 | -18% | 95% | 564 |
SG&A | 12 | 12 | 16 | 33% | 57 | 52 | -9% | 92% | 56 |
Operating Profit | 122 | 153 | 128 | -16% | 599 | 484 | -19% | 95% | 507 |
Financial income | 24 | 18 | 19 | 6% | 61 | 88 | 45% | 142% | 62 |
PBT | 146 | 170 | 146 | -14% | 697 | 569 | -18% | 100% | 566 |
NPAT-MI | 128 | 157 | 146 | -7% | 651 | 516 | -21% | 102% | 507 |
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GPM | 78.0% | 84.2% | 72.6% |
| 80.2% | 75.9% |
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| 74.4% |
SG&A/Revenue | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% |
| 7.0% | 7.3% |
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| 7.4% |
OPM | 71.0% | 78.1% | 64.6% |
| 73.3% | 68.6% |
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| 66.9% |
NPM | 74.4% | 80.1% | 73.5% |
| 79.6% | 73.2% |
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| 66.8% |
Source: SCS, Vietcap forecast
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