We cut our target price (TP) by 6% but maintain our BUY rating for SAB. The cut in our TP is mainly due to a 2% decrease in our aggregate 2023F-2025F NPAT-MI and a 12% decrease in our target P/E, which are partly offset by the positive effect of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2023.

For 2023F, we project revenue of VND40tn (USD1.6bn; +12% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND5.8tn (USD234mn; 6% YoY). We expect the growth in SAB’s top-line to be driven by improvement in its brand health but partially offset by our assumption that consumer spending could be negatively impacted by economic headwinds.

For 2022-2025F, we forecast an EPS CAGR of 10% due to (1) a full recovery of economic activity post-pandemic, (2) SAB gaining market share and improving its product mix, and (3) margin enhancement initiatives.