- We lower our target price (TP) for QTP by 19% to VND15,700/share but maintain a BUY rating as QTP’s share price has dropped 16% in the last five months. 

- Our lower TP reflects a 20% reduction in our 2024-28F aggregate NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -16%/-32%/-29%/-9%/-9%), due to (1) 14% lower CGM prices across the period, (2) 2-5% higher mixed coal prices (see our Thermal Power Sector Update, dated October 30, 2024), and (3) lower 2024F volume and higher 2024F maintenance costs. These factors outweigh the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to end 2025.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to increase 16% YoY, driven by (1) a 32% YoY decrease in depreciation expenses and (2) a 76% YoY drop in financial expenses, which outweigh (3) a 3% YoY decline in sales volume and (4) a 4% YoY rise in the average material cost.

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