- We raise our target price (TP) for QTP by 19% to VND19,400/share, and upgrade our rating to BUY from OUTPERFORM. Our higher TP reflects (1) our 15.9% higher aggregate 2024-28F reported NPAT-MI forecasts (1.6%/+28.1%/+14.6%/+16.4%/+16.6% in 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively), and (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2025F.  

- Our higher aggregate NPAT-MI due to (1) our raise of PPA’s fixed component by 5%, which we had previously underestimated, and (2) our raising CGM prices following our Thermal Power Sector Update Report, dated May 16, 2024. These factors outweigh our higher projected maintenance & other expenses in 2024 as explained at QTP’s 2024 AGM.

- We project 38% YoY growth in 2024 reported NPAT-MI, driven by (1) 1% YoY higher volume, and (2) a 2% YoY higher average selling price, (3) our estimated VND284bn decline in the depreciation expense, and (4) a 67% YoY decrease in interest expenses. In Q1 2024, QTP deliver strong reported NPAT-MI of VND227bn (+57% YoY).

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