PVT - Strong 9M results; 2024 capex projected 70% above forecast, upside evident

PVT released its 9M 2024 results with revenue of VND8.5tn (+26% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND884bn (+19% YoY). These figures are equivalent to 71% and 76% of our respective full-year forecasts, higher than our expectation. The official PBT was VND1.5tn (+26% YoY), 25% vs the preliminary numbers released in early October.
Strong growth in 9M 2024 NPAT-MI was driven by YoY higher tanker rates and the contributions from newly-acquired tankers in 2023 and 9M 2024. In 9M 2024, the tanker rate remained high YoY (ranging from 8% to 16% YoY) (Figure 2). PVT has aggressively expanded its capacity by (a) acquiring seven new vessels in 2023 (a 35% YoY expansion in total fleet capacity) and (b) acquiring four new vessels in 9M 2024. In addition, one-off income from selling the PVT Synergy tanker, valued at VND154bn, further boosted the company’s NPAT-MI.
For its Q3 2024 results, revenue was VND2.9tn (+15% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI was VND365bn (+47% YoY).
PVT aggressively continued expanding its fleet capacity in 2024 and the year's capex is potentially 70% higher than our forecast. 9M 2024 capex was VND1.2tn (USD47mn). In addition, in October 2024, PVT successfully acquired two tankers, named PVT Valencia and Pacific Pride (65% stake via its subsidiary, PV Trans Pacific JSC). Based on this, we estimate PVT’s 2024 capex to be at least ~VND2.4tn, ~70% higher vs our forecast. We estimate PVT to expand its fleet capacity by ~20% in 2024 after 2023’s record high. This is a strong foundation for robust earnings in coming years.
Overall, we foresee potential upside to our earnings forecast, pending a fuller review. This is mainly due to (1) PVT aiming to continue expanding its fleet in the remainder of 2024 and 2025 due to a favorable tanker market, coupled with (2) the divestment gain of PVT Synergy in 2024, and (3) higher-than-expected 9M financial income.

PVT’s 9M 2024 results

VND bn	Q3 2023	Q3 2024	YoY	9M 2023	9M 2024	YoY	% of Vietcap’s 2024F
Revenue	2,550	2,934	15%	6,709	8,465	26%	71%
Transportation	1,961	2,320	18%	5,429	6,734	24%	69%
FSO, trading & others	588	614	4%	1,280	1,731	35%	80%
Gross profit	516	632	23%	1,338	1,868	40%	70%
Transportation	450	552	22%	1,124	1,621	44%	70%
FSO, trading & others	65	81	24%	214	248	16%	71%
Sales & marketing exp	-4	-4	1%	-10	-11	5%	68%
General admin exp	-90	-114	27%	-248	-291	17%	69%
Operating profit (EBIT)	421	514	22%	1,080	1,567	45%	70%
Financial income	91	72	-20%	278	208	-25%	84%
Financial expenses	-162	-103	-36%	-331	-403	22%	68%
In which, interest expense	-88	-97	10%	-236	-303	28%	74%
Share profit/loss from associates	5	2	-57%	19	14	-25%	50%
Net other income/loss	42	169	300%	146	120	-17%	N.M.
NPAT	320	522	63%	957	1,201	26%	80%
NPAT-MI, reported	248	365	47%	742	884	19%	76%
NPAT-MI, core	216	229	7%	626	788	26%	66%
EBITDA	740	917	24%	1,999	2,712	36%	68%
			Δ ppts			Δ ppts
Gross profit margin	20.2%	21.5%	+1.3	19.9%	22.1%	+2.1
Sales & marketing % sales	0.2%	0.1%	-0.0	0.2%	0.1%	-0.0
General admin % sales	3.5%	3.9%	+0.4	3.7%	3.4%	-0.3
EBIT Margin	16.5%	17.5%	+1.0	16.1%	18.5%	+2.4
Reported NPAT-MI margin	9.7%	12.4%	+2.7	11.1%	10.4%	-0.6
Core NPAT-MI margin	8.4%	7.8%	-0.6	9.3%	9.3%	0

Source: PVT, Vietcap. Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes the net other income/loss

Figure 2: Summarizing the tanker rates in 9M 2024

‘000 USD/day	Q3 2024	QoQ	YoY	9M 2024	YoY
Aframax	46.0	-7%	8%	47.6	8%
Medium Range (MR)	28.2	-8%	16%	29.8	9%
Handymax	27.6	-5%	33%	27.7	16%

Source: Alibra, Bloomberg, Vietcap (Note: We use Aframax tanker as a benchmark for crude tanker rates, MR for oil product tanker rates, and Handymax for petrochemical tanker rates)