- We raise our target price (TP) for PVT by 11% to VND27,400/share but downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM as the company's share price has increased by 14% since our May 11, 2023 Update Report. Our higher TP is mainly due to a 12% increase in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (14%/13%/11% in 2023/2024/2025), which is supported by a 20% higher tanker rate for one crude tanker and full contributions from three oil product tankers acquired in 7M 2023 (increasing capex over the forecast period by 28%) but outweighed by the delay of very large crude carrier (VLCC) and Aframax crude tanker acquisitions from late 2023 to late 2024.

- We forecast 34% YoY recurring NPAT-MI growth in 2023F, which is mainly driven by higher tanker rates (~5% for crude tankers and ~15% for oil product tankers) due to contract renewals. We expect 10% YoY higher 2023F reported NPAT-MI as PVT’s tanker liquidation gains in Q2 2023 have provided an additional boost. We also forecast 2024F reported NPAT-MI to rise by 16% due to full-year contributions from new tankers and lower SG&A expenses.

- We forecast a 2022-2025F recurring EPS CAGR of 25% that will be driven by rising demand from overseas oil product & chemical, crude and LPG transportation as well as contracts from Nghi Son Refinery (NSR).

- PVT is trading at a 2023F EV/EBITDA of 3.8x, 38% lower than its five-year regional peer median.

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