- We raise our target price (TP) for PVS by 1.2% to VND51,000/share & maintain our BUY rating. The higher TP is due to our 1.4% higher aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (-7.8%/-10.7%/-2.8%/+7.9%/+16.3% in 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively). 

- Our higher aggregate NPAT-MI forecast due to (1) our incorporation of FSO Yellow Camel & FSO Block B projects, (2) we raise the day rate for FSO Ruby II from USD40,000 to USD92,500 in 2027-2028F, and (3) our extension of the contract timeline for FPSO Lam Son from end-2024 to end-2025 following recent guidance from PVS’s AGM & AM. These factors outweigh (4) our delayed Block B’s groundbreaking from mid-2024 to late-2024, and (5) Block B’s lower offshore gas pipeline contract value from USD400mn to USD310mn, and our lower NPM for this offshore gas pipeline contract to 2% (previously 4%) per our discussion with industry players.

- We forecast 2024/25F NPAT-MI to grow 9%/39% YoY driven by 44%/81% increases in M&C revenue amid domestic exploration & production recovery, and new offshore wind power. 

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