- We raise our target price (TP) for PVS by 0.5% to VND43,700/share and upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY. Our increased TP is due to our 0.1% higher aggregate 2023-2027F reported NPAT-MI (respective increases of 0.2%/1.1%/0.8% for 2023/2024/2025). This is due to: 1) our raise in contract value of the first M&C contract of the Block B project from USD400mn to USD500mn, and 2) assumption for PVS to finish construction for Block B in 2027 (one year earlier than our previous forecast) following its recent development. These positive factors offset 1) Yellow Camel project’s delay from 2024 to 2025/26 and 2) lowering our average 2023-2027F net profit forecast for FSO Bien Dong from ~VND85bn to ~VND21bn.

- We raise our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 0.2% to VND927bn (+5% YoY) primarily due to a higher financial income forecast offsetting lower profit from the FSO Bien Dong forecast.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to increase 32% YoY mainly as we anticipate M&C revenue to more than double YoY to VND19tn, driven by the recovery of domestic exploration & production (E&P) activities and contributions from new offshore wind power projects. Our projected 2022-2025F EPS CAGR of 21% is supported by our 2023-2027F M&C backlog forecast of USD5.7bn and profit from FSO/FPSO JVs of ~VND493bn in 2023-2028F on average.

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