- We lower our target price (TP) for PVS by 4% to VND48,800/share but maintain our BUY rating. Our lower TP is mainly due to (1) our 9% lower aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -4%/-9%/-23%/-16%/+11% for 2024/25/26/27/28F), which is partly offset by (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2025.

- Our lower aggregate NPAT-MI forecast is driven by (1) a 19% lower 2024-2028F M&C backlog assumption due to (a) removal of the Block B’s USD310mn offshore gas pipeline contract, (b) and a one-year delay for Blue Whale to 2027-2030F and the Son My LNG Terminal to 2027-2030F (see page 5 for details). These factors outweigh (2) 8% higher aggregate profit from FSO/FPSO JVs.

- We project 2024 NPAT-MI to grow nominally YoY, driven by (1) a 93% rise in M&C gross profit and (2) a 29% increase from FSO/FPSO JVs. In 9M 2024, NPAT-MI was VND631bn (+9% YoY). We expect substantial profits in Q4 2024 and onwards, as PVS received VND587bn in advance for Yellow Camel by September 30, and Block B’s EPCI 1 officially broke ground in early September. For 2025, we expect reported NPAT-MI to grow 32% YoY, driven by a 1.2x increase in M&C gross profit (with revenue up 80% and GPM increasing to 3.5%).

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