- We raise our TP for PVD by 4% to VND26,000/share but downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM as the company’s share price has increased 13% over the past three months. Our increased TP is due to our 2% higher 2023-2027F aggregate reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective increases of 4%/1%/1% for 2023/2024/2025) and the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2024. The implied P/B at our TP is 1.0x.

- We raise our 2023-2027F aggregate reported NPAT-MI forecast by 2% as we lower our average jack-up (JU) operating cash costs for 2023 by 8% following PVD’s recent guidance and strong Q1 2023 results.

- We anticipate a strong recovery in 2023, with projected recurring NPAT-MI jumping 3.5x YoY from its minimal base in 2022. This growth is primarily driven by a 20% YoY increase in PVD’s average JU day rate and a utilization rate of 96% (vs 85% in 2022).

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