- We raise our target price (TP) for PVD by 2.3% and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Our higher TP is mainly due to the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to end-2024. Meanwhile, we broadly maintain our aggregate 2023-2027F reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of +2.0%/-0.4%/0.0% for 2023/2024/2025).

- We increase our 2023F reported NPAT-MI forecast by 2.0% due to our 1.9% higher average JU day rate assumption. We reiterate our expectation for a strong recovery in 2023, which is driven by a 22% YoY increase in PVD’s average JU day rate to USD79,250 and a utilization rate of 96% vs 85% in 2022.

- We broadly maintain our forecast for 2024F reported NPAT-MI to more than double YoY, which is supported by a 24% YoY increase in the average JU day rate to USD98,500 and the recovery of the well-related services segment. We reiterate our expectation for domestic exploration & production (E&P) to enter a new cycle from 2024, with further progress of the Block B gas field, Yellow Camel oil field, Dai Hung – Phase 3 oil field, and other oil & gas projects.

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