- We raise our TP for PVD by 20% to VND25,000/share and upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY. Our higher TP is due to our 12% higher 2023-2027F aggregate reported NPAT-MI forecast that is mainly driven by our 4% higher jack-up (JU) day rate assumption. The implied P/B at our TP is 1.0x.
- We raise our average JU day rate in 2023-2027F by 4% due to a tighter-than-expected JU market and the lagged positive impact of higher oil prices on day rates. We maintain our average Brent oil price assumptions of USD90/bbl for 2023 and USD75/bbl for 2024-2027.
- We expect 2023 recurring NPAT-MI to jump ~3x YoY due to a 20% YoY increase of the average JU day rate and PVD’s JU fleet operating at 96% capacity (vs 85% in 2022).