- 2024-01-24T00:00:00
- Company Research
- PTB announced preliminary 2023 results, in which revenue and PBT dropped 19% and 40% YoY, completing 107% and 92% of our forecasts, respectively. PTB has not yet disclosed its revenue and profit breakdown, nor commented on the preliminary results.
- Q4 2023 revenue improved 32% QoQ. We believe there has been a QoQ improvement in core revenue (wooden furniture and stone sales), not only in low-margin auto dealership revenue.
- However, Q4 2023 PBT dropped 26% QoQ. PBT margin compressed sharply from 7.9% in Q3 2023 to 4.5% in Q4 2023, hitting an eight-year low. We think this could be due to one-off SG&A or financial expenses as we believe GPM compression alone should not be substantial amid a recovery of revenue.
- A potential one-off expense booked in Q4 2023 could have been a provision for bad debt. In September, Noble House filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US. This company accounted for 5%/12% of PTB’s 2022/H1 2023 wood revenue, respectively. PTB has suspended sales to Noble House, waiting for payment of a VND60bn outstanding receivable. In November, GigaCloud Technology acquired Noble House for USD85 million. PTB is negotiating its repayment schedule with GigaCloud.
- PTB guides for 2024 revenue and PBT to increase 9% and 15% YoY, equivalent to 100% and 73% of our 2024F, respectively. We note that PTB’s guidance is usually not a good leading indicator of its actual results.
PTB’s 2023 business results and 2024 business guidance
VND bn | Q4 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2023 YoY | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | 2023 /2023F | 2023F | 2024G |
Revenue | 1,723 | 1,187 | 1,570 | -22% | 6,886 | 5,641 | -19% | 107% | 5,289 | 6,175 |
Wood | 772 | 536 | N/A | N/A | 3,383 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2,537 | N/A |
Stone | 507 | 417 | N/A | N/A | 1,707 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,714 | N/A |
Real estate | 47 | 7 | N/A | N/A | 406 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 65 | N/A |
Other* | 397 | 226 | N/A | N/A | 1391 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 974 | N/A |
Gross profit | 334 | 262 | N/A | N/A | 1,541 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,142 | N/A |
Selling expenses | -134 | -85 | N/A | N/A | -562 | N/A | N/A | N/A | -410 | N/A |
G&A | -70 | -45 | N/A | N/A | -236 | N/A | N/A | N/A | -211 | N/A |
EBIT | 130 | 132 | N/A | N/A | 742 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 520 | N/A |
Non-ops | -40 | -37 | N/A | N/A | -131 | N/A | N/A | N/A | -122 | N/A |
PBT | 90 | 94 | 70 | -36% | 611 | 365 | -40% | 92% | 398 | 420 |
NPAT-MI | 78 | 77 | N/A | N/A | 487 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 327 | N/A |
Margins |
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GPM | 19.4% | 22.1% | N/A |
| 22.4% | N/A |
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| 21.6% |
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EBIT margin | 7.5% | 11.1% | N/A |
| 10.8% | N/A |
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| 9.8% |
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EBITDA margin | 11.5% | 26.2% | N/A |
| 14.8% | N/A |
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| 15.0% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 4.5% | 6.5% | N/A |
| 7.1% | N/A |
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| 6.2% |
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Source: PTB, Vietcap (* Including auto dealership revenue that has low profit margins)
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