- We lower our target price (TP) for PPC by 3% to VND14,900/share and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Our lower TP reflects (1) a 5% lower valuation for PPC’s standalone power generation business, due to a 3.6% cut in our 2024-2028F aggregate NPAT-MI forecast (-5.8%/-4.8%/-3.5%/-0.2%/-4.4% in our 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively), (2) a 1% lower valuation for PPC’s associate HND, and (3) a 4% lower valuation for PPC’s associate QTP. 

- We cut PPC’s 2024-2028F aggregate NPAT-MI due to our slightly lower fixed component of the PPA price for Pha Lai 1 by 5% in 2024-2028F. We forecast 2024 PPC’s reported NPAT-MI to grow by 68% to VND729bn, driven by (1) 32% YoY higher volume from full-year operation of the S6 generator of Pha Lai 2, and (2) 9% YoY lower average material costs.

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