- 2024-05-16T00:00:00
- Company Research
- We raise our target price (TP) for PPC by 12% to VND16,700/share, and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Our higher TP reflects (1) a 10% higher valuation for PPC’s standalone power generation business, driven by our 4.7% higher 2024-28F aggregate NPAT-MI forecast (-5.1%/+6.4%/+5.8%/+6.8%/+7.4% in 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively); (2) a 12% higher valuation for HND, reflecting a 6.1% higher 2024-2028F aggregate NPAT forecast; (3) a 19% higher valuation for QTP, reflecting a 15.9% higher 2024-2028F aggregate NPAT-MI forecast, and (4) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2025.
- We raise our 2024-28F aggregate NPAT-MI forecast due to our higher ASP assumption on higher projected CGM prices as discussed in our Thermal Power Sector Update Report, dated May 16, 2024. This outweighs lower projected dividends received in 2024 as we lower our forecasts for cash dividend payments from QTP and HND following their AGM resolutions.
- We project 82% YoY growth in 2024 reported NPAT-MI driven by (1) 32% YoY higher volume from full-year operation of the S6 generator of Pha Lai 2, and (2) 9% YoY lower average material costs. In Q1 2024, PPC delivered strong reported NPAT-MI of VND63bn (4x YoY).
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