- PPC released its Q3 2023 results with revenue of VND1.3tn (+14% YoY; -4% QoQ) and reported NPAT-MI of VND84bn (-45% YoY; -48% QoQ). The sharp decline in NPAT-MI was primarily caused by (1) a 33% YoY decrease in price spread as the Competitive Generation Market price (CGM) price dropped in Q3 2023, and (2) 59% YoY higher maintenance costs & other expenses. These factors were more significant than a 30% YoY increase in sales volume, as well as lower coal prices and resilient dividend income.

- For 9M 2023, revenue was VND4.0tn (+15% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI was VND285bn (-3% YoY), completing 70% and 79% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. However, this NPAT-MI figure was largely supported by a higher dividend income of VND313bn (+30% YoY), while the gross profit of VND35bn (-74% YoY), only completed 21% of our full-year forecast and trailed our expectation. Therefore, we foresee a downside risk to our NPAT from the power generation forecast, pending a fuller review. 

- In contrast, in the semi-annual financial statements of 2023, PPC and EVN identified an incorrect revenue of VND185bn from December 2018 to March 2022. They adjusted this item in 2022’s retained earnings. Meanwhile, we forecast a VND162bn reduction in 2023’s revenue. Consequently, we foresee an upside potential to our reported 2023 NPAT forecast, pending a more comprehensive review.

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