- 2024-10-30T00:00:00
- Company Research
- POW announced Q3 2024 revenue of VND6.1tn (USD242mn; +7% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND400bn (USD16mn; +4x YoY). We attribute the 4x YoY NPAT-MI mainly to a VND340bn (USD13.6mn) net FX gain vs a net FX loss of VND65bn (USD2.6mn) in Q3 2023, in addition to sales volume growth across power plants, except for Vung Ang (due to maintenance for its generator No.2 from mid-August to mid-October).
- POW reported 9M 2024 results with revenue of VND21.7tn (USD867mn; +1% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND1,069bn (USD43mn; +44% YoY), fulfilling 67%/75% of our respective full-year forecasts. These results are in line with our current projections. The almost flat YoY revenue was driven by the nearly flat total sales volume (+2% YoY), in which strong volume expansion from Vung Ang (+33% YoY) offset the plunges in volume in NT2 (-23% YoY) and Nhon Trach 1 (-61% YoY). We attribute the stronger expansion in NPAT-MI vs revenue to (1) a net FX gain of VND157bn (USD6.3mn) vs a net FX loss of VND68 (USD2.7mn) in 9M2023, and (2) 70% lower minorities interest.
- 9M core NPAT-MI was VND883bn (USD35.3mn, +26% YoY) completing 65% of our full-year projection. The core earnings are slightly below our forecast, driven by a slightly lower-than-expected sales volume (completing 68% of our projection).
- Overall, we see insignificant changes to our 2024 reported NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review as potential lower-than-expected net FX loss might offset slightly lower-than-expected core NPAT.
- We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for POW with a target price of VND13,800/share.
Figure 1: POW's 9M 2024 sales volume
million kWh | Q3 2023 | Q3 2024 | YoY | 9M 2023 | 9M 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Output | 2,805 | 3,047 | 9% | 11,145 | 11,416 | 2% | 68% |
Ca Mau | 1,015 | 1,188 | 17% | 4,114 | 4,298 | 4% | 66% |
Nhon Trach 1 | 73 | 111 | 51% | 563 | 217 | -61% | 22% |
Nhon Trach 2 | 365 | 743 | 104% | 2,494 | 1,921 | -23% | 93% |
Vung Ang | 1,030 | 606 | -41% | 3,137 | 4,169 | 33% | 68% |
Hua Na | 192 | 266 | 38% | 399 | 423 | 6% | 77% |
Dakdrinh | 130 | 133 | 3% | 440 | 388 | -12% | 79% |
Source: POW, Vietcap
Figure 2: POW’s 9M 2024 results
VND bn | Q3 2023 | Q3 2024 | YoY | 9M 2023 | 9M 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Revenue | 5,679 | 6,061 | 7% | 21,533 | 21,686 | 1% | 67% |
COGS | -5,373 | -5,764 | 7% | -20,078 | -20,278 | 1% | 67% |
Gross profit | 307 | 297 | -3% | 1,455 | 1,408 | -3% | 60% |
Selling exp | 0 | 0 | N.M. | 0 | 0 | N.M | N.M. |
G&A | -149 | -169 | 14% | -483 | -480 | 0% | 55% |
Operating profit | 158 | 128 | -19% | 973 | 928 | -5% | 63% |
Financial income | 139 | 411 | 196% | 385 | 617 | 60% | 97% |
Interest income | 123 | 122 | -1% | 330 | 294 | -11% | 54% |
FX gains | 8 | 241 | 2846% | 15 | 243 | 1567% | N.M. |
Others | 7 | 49 | 562% | 41 | 80 | 95% | 89% |
Financial expenses | -213 | 3 | -102% | -489 | -357 | -27% | 36% |
Interest expense | -134 | -96 | -28% | -391 | -264 | -32% | 43% |
FX loss | -73 | 99 | -237% | -83 | -87 | 5% | 29% |
Others | -7 | 0 | N.M. | -15 | -6 | -60% | N.M. |
Other non-operating income | -2 | 5 | N.M. | 142 | 80 | -44% | 22% |
PBT | 82 | 548 | 569% | 1,011 | 1,268 | 25% | 85% |
- Income tax exp | -30 | -94 | 218% | -127 | -156 | 23% | 181% |
NPAT before MI | 52 | 454 | 766% | 884 | 1,111 | 26% | 79% |
- Minority interests | 30 | -54 | N.M. | -141 | -42 | -70% | N.M. |
Reported NPAT-MI | 83 | 400 | 384% | 743 | 1,069 | 44% | 75% |
Core NPAT-MI * | 138 | 124 | -10% | 700 | 883 | 26% | 65% |
Source: POW, Vietcap (* Excluding one-off items, compensation for FX loss and insurance)
Powered by Froala Editor