• We cut our target price (TP) for POW by 4% to VND13,000/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM. Our lower TP is due to our 6% lower aggregate 2023-2027F reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective cuts of 17%/18%/6%/1%/0% for 2023/24/25/26/27F). This is primarily driven by 7%/2% cuts in our 2023/24F sales volume forecasts following weaker-than-expected 11M 2023 results and the Ministry of Industry & Trade (MoIT)’s guidance for lower mobilization from gas-fired power in 2024, mainly in the Southeast. We also reduce our CGM price assumptions for POW by 3% on average over our forecast period following cuts to our projections for sector CGM prices. (See our Thermal Power Sector Update, dated December 18, 2023 for details.) 
• We forecast POW’s 2024F reported NPAT-MI to increase by 25% YoY, which is mainly driven by 171% higher NPAT-MI from Vung Ang (based on full-capacity operation and expected high CGM prices in the North), a doubling in earnings YoY from Ca Mau and 20% YoY higher earnings from NT2 (see our NT2 Update report, dated December 18, 2023). 

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