We maintain our target price (TP) for POW at VND14,800/share but downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM as the company’s share price has increased 9% over the past two months. We view POW as a solid play on Vietnam’s resilient power consumption and structural transition to LNG with its future Nhon Trach 3 & 4 LNG-fired plants.

Our maintained TP is due to our 6% lower aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI, which is offset by the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2023.

We lower our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT forecast by 6% (details in Figure 3) due to 1) a 38% downward revision to our 2023 reported NPAT-MI forecast for the Vung Ang plant, 2) 33% higher 2023 interest expenses and 3) delaying Nhon Trach 3 and 4 to come online by mid-2025 and mid-2026, respectively (six to 12 months later than our previous expectations and POW’s current timeline).