- We cut our target price (TP) for POW by 3% to VND12,600/share but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating.

- Our lower TP is due to our 4% lower aggregate 2024-2028F reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective cuts of 10%/8%/3% for 2024/25/26F) mainly from our 10%/2% lower 2024/25F sales volume projections. This is because we reduce NT2’s 2024/25F sales volume by 49%/9%, respectively, following the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC)’s significantly low mobilization plan for the plant in 2024 at 1.3 billion kWh (as per industry players). 

- We forecast POW’s 2024F reported NPAT-MI to increase by 13% YoY, mainly driven by Vung Ang’s earnings expanding by 3x (based on its full-capacity operation, expected high CGM prices in the north and our assumption for the plant to record a VND300bn insurance compensation in 2024 vs none in 2023), and Ca Mau’s earnings increasing by over 2x on strong YoY volume growth.

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