- We raise our target price (TP) for POW by 4.5% to VND13,800 p/s but downgrade our rating from BUY to MARKET PERFORM as the share price has rallied 36% over the past six weeks. 

- Our higher TP is due to a 1.3% increase in aggregate forecast 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (0%/-7%/-7%/+9%/+11% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively). In addition, we raise our ten-year aggregate NPAT-MI forecast by 5%. 

- These changes reflect: 1) our higher CGM price assumptions for Nhon Trach 3 & 4 as we believe the long-term outlook for LNG-fired power plants is bright due to our expectation for strong growth in Vietnam’s demand for power, despite projected near-term losses in 2025/26F, and 2) adding VND700bn insurance compensation for Vung Ang in 2025F, following guidance at the recent AGM. These positive changes outweigh: 3) higher projected 2025/26F losses for Nhon Trach 3 & 4 due to lower contracted volume, higher depreciation and interest expense assumptions and 4) an expected loss for NT1 in 2025F. (Details on page 4.)

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