POW [MARKET PERFORM +5.9%] - Strong earnings recovery despite start-up losses at NT3&4

We cut our target price (TP) for POW by 8.7% to VND12,600/share and maintain a MARKET PERFORM rating.
Our lower TP is due to a 15.6% decrease in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (-4%/-30%/-28%/-11%/-2% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively). This adjustment outweighs the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to end-2025 (details on page 4).
This change reflect: 1) 14% on average lower sector CGM price forecasts for the 2024-2028F period (see our Thermal Power Sector Update, dated October 30, 2024), 2) lower volume recovery across most of POW’s power plants, and 3) less favorable contracted volume.
We forecast 2024 NPAT-MI to grow 31% YoY, mainly due to the recognition of a VND300bn insurance payment for the Vung Ang plant expected in Q4.