POW [MARKET PERFORM +5.9%] - Strong earnings recovery despite start-up losses at NT3&4 - Update
  • 2024-10-30T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • We cut our target price (TP) for POW by 8.7% to VND12,600/share and maintain a MARKET PERFORM rating.
  • Our lower TP is due to a 15.6% decrease in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (-4%/-30%/-28%/-11%/-2% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively). This adjustment outweighs the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to end-2025 (details on page 4).
  • This change reflect: 1) 14% on average lower sector CGM price forecasts for the 2024-2028F period (see our Thermal Power Sector Update, dated October 30, 2024), 2) lower volume recovery across most of POW’s power plants, and 3) less favorable contracted volume.
  • We forecast 2024 NPAT-MI to grow 31% YoY, mainly due to the recognition of a VND300bn insurance payment for the Vung Ang plant expected in Q4.

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