- POW announced Q1 2023 results with revenue of VND7.4tn (USD314.6mn; +5% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND534bn (USD22.6mn; -26% YoY), completing 21% and 23% of our respective full-year forecasts. We attribute the 26% YoY lower reported NPAT-MI to decreasing one-off profit and lower adjusted NPAT. In Q1 2022, there was VND276bn of compensation for FX losses (recorded under revenue). Meanwhile, POW booked ~VND149bn of insurance compensation (for Vung Ang coal-fired plant’s technical issue — classified as other income) in Q1 2023. 

- Q1 2023 adjusted NPAT-MI declined by 23% YoY, which we believe was due to lower NPAT from Nhon Trach 1 and hydropower plants (84%-stake subsidiary Hua Na’s (UpCOM: HNA) Q1 NPAT declined 8% YoY). Furthermore, according to POW, its coal input prices were higher than that of Q1 2022 and even higher than the coal price level being allowed to add into the PPA. In addition, the company could have booked higher-than-expected maintenance expenses. These factors outweighed the robust performance of PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2 (HOSE: NT2) and the Ca Mau plant.  NT2 announced Q1 2023 reported NPAT of VND234bn (USD10mn; +47% YoY), which completed 29% of our full-year forecast (see more in our NT2 Earnings Flash, dated April 20, 2023).

- The adjusted NPAT-MI only completed 19% of our full-year forecast and trailed our expectation due to higher-than-expected interest expenses. In addition, short-term debt as end-Q1 2023 rose ~22% vs end-Q1 2022. 

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